Overview

Overview of Prime Minister’s Announcement: Monday 22^nd February 2021

Incisive Health have provided an overview of the Prime Minister’s announcement on Monday 22^nd February, where he laid out the Government’s new plan to Parliament to ease COVID-19 restrictions in the coming weeks and months. Full details of the plan can be found here, and the PM’s statement here.

In a move away from the tiered system, the Government’s aim is that by “cautiously” lifting restrictions nationally over the next four months, England will be out of the vast majority of legal restrictions by the end of June (bar the possibility of localised restrictions to contain new variants)

The plan announces four tests that must be met in order to move through the four steps of restriction lifting. They are as follows:

1. The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
2. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
4. Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern.

Full details of the government’s plan are below, but the key points are as follows:

• Those who are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable will be continued to ask to shield until the end of March
• The priority is getting children back to school, which will take place on 8 March and re-introducing certain allowances on friends and families meeting outdoors
• The time period between each step of easing will allow scientists to measure their impact on infections rates and hospital admissions
• Wider social distancing rules and work from home guidance will remain in place in the near term
• The aim is to offer the vaccine to all over 50s by mid-April, and to all adults by 31 July
• There will be ongoing review of social distancing and face masks, international travel, COVID certification to help venues open, and the return of major events

The four tests

Four tests must be passed to progress to the next step in lifting restrictions. Most notably, these do not include rise in infection levels (the “R number”) as a barrier. The four tests are:

1. The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
2. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated.
3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
4. Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern.

The four steps

Lifting lockdown will be spread over four months. From step 2 onwards, any dates refer to the earliest date possible for that restriction to be lifted. The four steps are:

Step 1 (from 8 March)

• 8 March:
  • All children return to school and further education settings with twice weekly testing for secondary school children. School sports and after school activities also return
  • University courses with practice teachings, onsite assessments etc will also return, with further review on this at the end of Easter holidays
  • Any two people can meet in public places without exercise (coffee, drink, picnic etc), though the extremely clinically vulnerable are advised to shield to the end of March
  • Care home visits allowed (indoors) by a single, named individual (with PPE)

• 29 March:
  • End of “stay at home” and “stay local” government messaging
  • Outdoor children’s and adult sports will resume (including tennis, basketball courts, football pitches, golf courses, open air swimming pools etc.)
  • Return of the ‘rule of six’. Six people from up to six households can met outside in public spaces or private gardens
  • Two households of any size can meet outside

• 31 March
  • Shielding will end for Clinically Extremely Vulnerable groups in England

Step 2 (no earlier than 12 April)

• Non-essential retail, personal care (including hairdressers and nail salons), indoor leisure (including gyms), and holiday lets for use of one household are to open
• Pubs and restaurants to begin opening for outdoor service with no curfew or requirement for food with alcohol
• Zoos, theme parks, drive in cinemas, public libraries and community centres to open

Step 3 (no earlier than 17 May)

• Outdoor meetings of up to 30 people allowed
• Indoor meetings with the rule of six or two households also allowed
• Pubs and restaurants to serve indoors
• Return for hotels, cinemas, theatres, concert halls and stadiums with capacity limits depending on venues and with a pilot for larger events with testing

Step 4 (no earlier than 21 June)

• All restrictions on social contacts removed, including weddings, with the exception of night clubs and theatre performances up to the limits in Step 3

Reviews

The government will also undertake the following four reviews:

• On social distancing and face masks (informing changes to work from home guidance)
• On international travel (Global Travel Taskforce to report by 12 April, although no resumption of travel until 17 may at the earliest)
• On COVID status certification (testing/immunity passports) to help venues open at larger/full capacity (thought they note concern over exclusion, discrimination and privacy)
• On the return to major events

Vaccines

With one third of the UK populations vaccinated, the government is now aiming for:

• All those over 50 to be offered a first dose by 15 April
• All adults to be offered a first dose by 31 July

The government has also published the data on transmission of COVID-19 and vaccine efficacy, which shows:

• The Pfizer vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalisation and death by 75%
• The Oxford – AstraZeneca vaccine provides a good level of protection, however there is still not enough data to fully report

Testing

• Free test kits to workplaces will continue to the end of June (and are available to collect from local testing sites)
• Testing will be piloted for larger venue capacity and events
• School children to be test twice weekly
• Surge PCR tests and ‘test and trace’ will be continued to address variants of concern